Thursday, November 15, 2007

Hunter, Sosa, Guillen, or Jenkins?

In recent days, the Royals are rumored to be interested in a number of big hitting free agents: Torii Hunter, Sammy Sosa, Jose Guillen, and Geoff Jenkins seem to be generating the most buzz. Let's take a look at each one of them:

Torii Hunter (age 32, CF)

G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB BA OBP SLG
2007 160 600 94 172 45 1 28 107 18 .287 .334 .505
Career 1234 4492 672 1218 259 26 192 711 126 .271 .324 .469

The positives: Hunter played in 160 games last year. So, he's healthy. He hit 28 home runs, which is far more than any other Royals player hit. In fact, David DeJesus and Mark Teahen led our outfield with seven home runs each and they both played the majority of the season. Hunter drove in 107 runs. Our team leader last season was Emil Brown was 62. Enough said. Hunter stole 18 bases, which is more than any Royals player last season. He's a positive, upbeat guy who plays hard.

The negatives: Hunter is 32 and said to be seeking a five year contract worth as much as $90 million. There's talk about Hunter having lost a step in center field already and the idea of paying that sort of money for a player who is on the way down probably isn't all that appealing to Dayton Moore. But he knows that you have to overpay in the free agent market and he's shown that he's willing to do it when he thinks it'll fill a weakness.

Sammy Sosa (age 39, DH)

G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB BA OBP SLG
2007 114 412 53 104 24 1 21 92 0 .252 .311 .468
Career 2354 8813 1475 2408 379 45 609 1667 234 .273 .344 .534

The positives: Simple. He still has power and the Royals don't. He still drives in runs and the Royals don't. His OBP and SLG are slipping. He's nearing 40. And he's a short term stop gap, but he'll be affordable if no other options are available, he's a possibility.

The negatives: His age.

Jose Guillen (age 31, RF)

G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB BA OBP SLG
2007 153 593 84 172 28 2 23 99 5 .290 .353 .460
Career 1268 4485 597 1230 233 22 166 673 27 .274 .325 .447

The positives: Power, the ability to drive in runs, and an impressive OBP last season are good reasons to give Guillen a serious look. He still seems to be improving and he's been reasonably healthy in recent years, playing at least 148 games in three of the past four seasons.

The negatives: Bob Dutton reported recently that bidding on Guillen will start at $30 million over three years and "where it goes from there is anyone's guess." And do we really need to get into his attitude problems? So, it depends on how desperate Moore is for a power-hitting corner outfielder.

Geoff Jenkins (age 33, LF)

G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB BA OBP SLG
2007 132 420 45 107 24 2 21 64 2 .255 .319 .471
Career 1234 4407 661 1221 287 22 212 704 31 .277 .347 .496

The positives: Jenkins appears to be the poor man's version of Torii Hunter. He's played in the same amount of games as Hunter. He's hit more home runs, has just slightly fewer career RBI, has a much higher OBP and SLG. The Brewers declined a $9 million option on Jenkins for 2008, which means he could probably be had for less.

The negatives: He hits left-handed and with Teahen and DeJesus already hitting from the left side in the outfield, the need for another lefty in the line up isn't high. And you have to wonder about his age. His OBP dipped a ton in 2007.

Conclusion:

Taking everything into consideration, I'd choose Jose Guillen over the other three players. The price is going to be high, but that's just the market we are in right now. Guillen seems to be the only one of the four who is still improving. At 31, he's young enough to give us a good few years and I like the fact that he's seeking a three-year deal vs. Hunter who is a year older and seek a five-year deal.

My biggest concern is Guillen's attitude. His altercation with Mike Scioscia a couple of years ago and then his follow up comments about him were extremely low class. Low enough to make me wonder if all his talent is worth putting up with.

2 comments:

Anonymous said...

sosa good option for the fun , the royals need somebody to lead
in the fiel, sosa still have some magic olnly need a positive team
and a exelent crowd like kansas city fans for me the best of the nation

Lee Warren said...

Sosa could be fun, you are right about that, especially if he's plugged into the line up every day and begins to blast home runs.

 
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